Two Potential Drug Pipeline "Disruptors" to Watch

Two Potential Drug Pipeline "Disruptors" to Watch

It's easy to make a market figure showing a line moving forward, but the real world of business, even a predictable one like healthcare where companies are required to disclose activities - doesn't work that way. True industry predictions are on the lookout for products that could upset market share. Assessments of the pharmaceutical market rely on estimates of the current market, with a an adjustment for a normal prediction of the future. In our report, we don’t assume a normal future – we are looking for drug candidates that will jump expectations and change established company leadership.  Kalorama's recent report on Drug Pipeline Disruptors lists several areas that could be changed by a drug candidate lurking in the near-term drug pipeline.

Kalorama information cites two drug candidates that could disrupt the pharmaceutical market in lymphoma and asthma therapeutics market in the next five years, the way the hepatitis and melanoma drug markets have been in the past few years. Kalorama Information, a New York City-based market research firm, said that forecast data were derived from a combination of pipeline analyses, current product treatment guidelines, potential candidate clinical trial results and other factors that may affect the performance of either current or future sales of a particular therapy. Although The firm’s report Potential Pipeline Disruptors: New Products That Will Drive the Future Pharmaceutical Market lists six future leaders in drug markets that could change market share, including two candidates in asthma and lymphoma therapeutics that the firm has identified.

Such developments have happened before. Kalorama defines ‘drug pipeline disruptors’ as drugs that impact current therapies with significant competition and alter the course of treatment. For the purpose of this study, it may affect current therapies that were also considered disruptor innovations at one time or involves a new innovation that is expected to displace other treatments. As an example, In recent years, several 'disruptors' have hit the market and pushed aside the current standard treatment protocols. Gilead and Bristol-Myers Squibb have produced innovative therapies that can be classified as pipeline disruptors:

Two Drugs That Disrupted Their Pharmaceutical Markets

• In 2013, Gilead began to rollout its new therapies for Hepatitis C. These the company claimed were superior products to the established market. A bold claim considering it was going up against some of the biggest names in biopharmaceutical participation - mainly Merck and Roche. The market showed favor for Gilead's products, which began to erode sales for Merck and Roche's HCV products. By 2015, Gilead had a solid hold on the market with about 80% market share.

• In December 2014, Bristol-Myers Squibb was granted approval for its PD-1 monoclonal antibody Opdivo (nivolumab). Opdivo was originally granted approval for advanced melanoma; by the end of 2016, lung cancer, renal cell carcinoma, lymphoma, and head & neck cancer were also approved.

Two Candidates That Could Shake Up The Pharmaceutical Market

In asthma, Novartis is currently studying QVM149 and QMF149 in separate and combined trials including one study that is targeting the superiority of either QVM149 or QMF149. This study is expected to be completed in October 2018 and is being held at 252 locations around the globe. In April 2017, Novartis opened a Phase III trial in Japan for patients with asthma to assess safety.

Bayer's BAY 80-6946 potential lymphoma therapeutic is another drug pipeline prospect predicted to change share in the future pharmaceutical market. Four other potential new drug category leaders from the drug pipeline are detailed in the report.

Our findings are based on its complete and previously published pipeline analysis of the Top 25 pharmaceutical companies. The firm advises that although a thorough analysis and best effort has been made to provide a reliable market forecast, changes can occur which would affect company sales forecasts, market positions/shares, and overall market values. These may include a high-profile merger, a promising late development project deemed not approvable, an unforeseen patent extension of a high-sale therapy, a major production or manufacturing setback, or any other similarly unpredictable event.

The Biosimilar Threat Pushes Innovation in Pharma Pipelines

The changing legislative environment and new healthcare reform should be carefully observed to adapt strategies and adjust development plans. In the area of biosimilars, the changes will likely continue to support additional activity in development and adoption as the industry as a whole looks to cost-saving strategies while continuing to provide access to vital therapies.Biotechnology products are important to Roche; three-fourths of its pharmaceutical sales are from biotechnology products. Most of its diagnostics are also considered biotechnology products.Development activities of biosimilar therapies targeting Avastin, Herceptin, and Rituxan are currently at full speed to enhance the pipeline.   Development efforts are on pace to reach market penetration by 2018 and are expected to be strong performers, upsetting original therapy performance.  The growing development of biosimilars is expected to pressure biotechnology companies, but Roche is also working to advance product innovation and protect its investments. Part of this strategy involves launching new versions of drugs like subcutaneous Herceptin, Kadcyla, and Gazyva.
Roche has said it will "vigorously" continue its efforts in biotechnology. In 2013, it invested around $900 million in a global biologic manufacturing network and in 2012, invested additional resources in its Penzberg biotechnology center in Germany. On the opposing side, in 2015 it announced the restructuring and divesting of several small-molecule manufacturing sites. o with both innovations and acquisitions while focusing on specific market segments by divesting businesses. It has a strategic focus in eye care, innovative medicines and generic pharmaceutical products and has a portfolio of biosimilars in development through its Sandoz business unit.

Kalorama Information’s report goes into detail about current market share percentages among companies in the breast cancer, lung cancer, lymphoma, asthma and Alzheimer’s segments and where the market share will be in 2022. It’s report is available at: